This is another installment of “The Questions I Get Asked A Lot”. Whether as an agent or especially as a DE, one of the biggest questions I get: Is my book commercially viable? Second only to: Do I have a chance of getting published?
These are valid questions, driven by the desire to see your work reach readers and, ideally, find a place in the market. Yet, the publishing industry is a labyrinth of subjective decisions, shifting trends, and unpredictable outcomes. What one person sees as a future bestseller; another might dismiss without a second glance.
To add to the complexity, the journey from a book’s acquisition to its launch typically spans 12-24 months. In that time, the literary landscape can change dramatically. Predicting what will be popular when your book hits the shelves is like guessing today’s winning lottery numbers—challenging, if not impossible.
The Subjective Nature of Publishing
Publishing is an industry steeped in subjectivity. Personal taste, market demands, and timing all intertwine to determine a book’s success or failure. Agents and editors are often the gatekeepers, and their decisions are influenced by a mix of intuition, experience, and the current market climate. What resonates with one might fall flat with another. Even a beautifully crafted manuscript can face rejection simply because it doesn’t fit into an editor’s vision or because the market is oversaturated with similar themes.
This subjectivity extends to readers as well. What one reader might find captivating, another might find uninspiring.
The Unpredictability of Trends
Trends in publishing are like waves—sometimes predictable, but often surprising. What’s popular today might not be in a year, and what’s dismissed now could be the next big thing. A prime example of this is Anne Rice’s Interview with the Vampire. When it was published in 1976, vampire novels were not trending. In fact, no vampire books were on the New York Times Bestseller lists at the time. Yet, a few months after its release, Rice’s novel created a lot of buzz, quickly becoming a massive success, revitalizing the genre and proving that what’s off the radar today might be front and center tomorrow.
Similarly, consider the phenomenon of Twilight. Before its debut, young adult vampire romance was hardly a recognized category, let alone a dominant one. But Twilight didn’t just succeed; it exploded onto the scene, creating a trend that led to countless other books, movies, and even entire publishing imprints focused on similar themes.
I’m not saying you should write a vampire book. I’m pointing out these books succeeded not because they followed trends, but because they offered something unique that resonated deeply with readers.
Timing: A Double-Edged Sword
The 12-24 month timeline between a book’s acquisition and its launch can be both a blessing and a curse. On one hand, it allows time for careful editing, marketing, and positioning in the market. On the other hand, the market itself can change significantly during this period. A book acquired during a trend’s peak might not hit the shelves until after that trend has waned, leaving it struggling to find an audience. Conversely, a book that seems out of step with current trends might find itself perfectly positioned if the market shifts in its favor during those months.
Timing is crucial, but it’s also largely out of the writer’s control. This is why some books that seem poised for success never quite make it, while others that appear to be long shots end up taking the market by storm.
Example: City on Fire by Garth Risk Hallberg
When it was published in 2015, the book was expected to be a massive hit. It had all the elements that were trending at the time: a sprawling, epic narrative set in New York City, blending literary fiction with elements of crime and historical fiction, and a focus on the gritty, complex social landscape of the 1970s. The novel also attracted attention because of its impressive 900-page length and the fact that it had garnered a significant advance (reportedly $2 million), signaling high expectations from the publishing industry.
However, despite considerable initial buzz and a high-profile release, the book didn’t resonate with readers in the way many anticipated. Several factors may have contributed to this: the novel’s length and dense, multi-layered plot may have been daunting for readers looking for more accessible narratives, and the market’s appetite for epic, complex literary fiction might have been overestimated at the time. Additionally, while the novel tapped into the nostalgia for a gritty, crime-ridden New York, this particular slice of history may not have connected with a broader audience as much as expected. Instead, the following books were top sellers during this time: The Girl on the Train by Paula Hawkins; Go Set a Watchman by Harper Lee; Grey by E.L. James.
On a positive note, all is not lost for City on Fire – in 2023 it was adapted into a series on Apple TV+; though the time period was updated from the 1970s into the early 2000s. My previous post talks about new life for “failed” books: Delayed Literary Gratification.
Conclusion: Focus on What You Can Control
In an industry as unpredictable as publishing, it’s easy to become fixated on questions of commercial viability. But while it’s important to be aware of the market, it’s even more important to focus on what you can control: writing the best book possible, understanding your audience, and being adaptable to change.
Remember, many of the most successful books started as outliers, bucking trends and defying expectations. The most important thing is to keep writing, keep submitting, and keep believing in your work. After all, no one knows what the next big thing might be. Your book could be the one that surprises everyone.